The Five Phases of Technology
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Phase 1: Origin, development and first hobbyist community.
- The technology is invented for the first time, often as little more than an intellectual exercise. It gets researched internally by a governmental or educational institution, or sometimes by a company or individual.
- Researchers and academics (or the company or individual) complete their initial development of the technology and decide not to build it further. Sometimes another party invents the same technology independently. Its existence, and access to it, is revealed publicly.
- Technically-minded hobbyists pick it up and a community forms around it. They try various paradigms, discuss ideas, and slowly develop standards organically. The community builds the technology into a viable small- to medium-scale system.
- The technology experiences a "golden age" as a free, open, deregulated paradise. It rises in grassroots popularity as a result. The barrier to entry in the community remains high, however, due to significant technical knowledge or financial outlay needed to use it.
Phase 2: Mainstream introduction, commercialization and dominance.
- A forward-looking company sees potential profit in the technology and builds their own version to sell as a product. It is marketed to, and designed to be used by, people who are not tech-savvy.
- News of the technology begins to spread outside the hobbyist commuity, via the marketing or by organic word of mouth. Trend-setting casual users discover the technology through the company's implementation. They begin to talk about it as the hot new thing. The original hobbyists are excited to share their passion for the technology and eagerly advocate for its adoption.
- Other companies quickly jump on the bandwagon and create their own versions of the technology. They hire many of the the original hobbyists develop it professionally. Their implementations water down the technology until it contains only a fraction of its original power and flexibility. A flood of intellectual-property claims causes the technology, or at least its extensions and wrappers, to become proprietary.
- The general public picks up on the trend and adopts the technology on a large scale. Some do it because of the utility of the technology, while others simply want to keep with the times. The technology begins to appear everywhere, being used and recommended by influential people and organizations. It soon becomes dominant in the mainstream.
Phase 3: First problems, regulation and end of heyday.
- The ubiquity of the technology draws bad actors. Some begin to use the technology for taboo, dangerous or illegal purposes. Others engage in mean or disruptive behavior. The technology develops an unsavory reputation in a few parts of the mainstream. Moralists argue that it should be regulated, or regulated more.
- Companies join the push for increased regulation, primarily as a means of controlling the market and destroying competition. Sensationalist media outlets report on the "danger" of the technology. The bad press foments a certain amount of public opposition to the technology, but its detractorship remains a minority.
- The government uses the perceived public outrage to implement sweeing controls over the technology. It is stifled by restrictive patents, trademarks and copyrights. The remaining potential for open access is crushed by government licensing and regulation.
- Technically-minded hobbyists begin to lose interest in the technology because it can no longer be developed freely. Bleeding-edge users are put off by its restrictions or reputation, while trend-setters look for the next big thing. These users begin to switch away. In the meantime, however, the technology still enjoys considerable popularity in the general public.
Phase 4: Popular decline, obsolescence and retirement.
- One or more events cause mainstream use of the technology to begin declining. Restrictions might cause all development, including commercial, to slow to a standstill. The technology might reach its practical limit and be unable to evolve further. An incompatible technology might outcompete it, either organically or artificially. Its bad reputation might overshadow it. It might be found to be fundamentally and irreparably flawed in some way.
- Companies start to deprecate the technology and use it only as a fallback. Similar technologies become dominant and take its place. The technology falls out of style, and the public begins to see it as outdated and archaic. It becomes a legacy tool, only used casually by a few holdouts.
- Major organizations eventually intentionally break compatibility. Smaller companies drop support one by one as they are overwhelmed by market forces. All remaining casual users are forced to switch away. The only remaining users are hardcore, knowledgeable enthusiasts who know how to maintain the technology independently.
- Despite the complete evaporation of any notable user base, the governmental regulations and corporate IP claims remain in force. New companies cannot fill the vacuum left behind, as the barrier to entry in the market is too high.
Phase 5: Second hobbyist community, miniature revival and death.
- A small, dedicated hardcore community keeps the technology alive in an unofficial form. For a while, they reclaim the glory of the early days on a small scale. Preservationists try to archive as much information about the technology as possible, but only a small percentage is saved.
- Unofficial usage of the technology violates the old corporate and government restrictions. The community is forced underground to avoid legal trouble, and it becomes even smaller as a result. The tiny size of the core community leads to stagnation.
- Supporting the technology becomes increasingly difficult as time passes. Usable supplies are harder to source and compatible code is harder to maintain. Eventually even the hardcore hobbyists lose interest or are unable to continue.
- The technology dies, abandoned and largely forgotten. Most information that could only be accessed via the technology is lost.
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Of course, not every technology undergoes every part of every phase, and they don't always happen in the same order. In my experience, however, this is the norm.
I originally jotted down this note in early 2019, almost two years before I first heard about Gemini. Right now I see Gemini solidly in phase 1, and with no prospect of commercialization on the horizon, it will likely never reach phase 2. However, some unforeseen event could cause Gemini to proceed to phase 3 or 4 at any time. Only time will tell.
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[Last updated: 2025-08-27]